Good morning and welcome to the Monday after Black Monday which, unlike years past, contains almost as much intrigue as the main event (we say intrigue from a fan sense, while also noting that the Monday after the regular season ends is often one of the worst days of many peoples’ careers). Because the Detroit Lions lost to the Washington Commanders in one of the most stunning playoff upsets in recent history, both of the Lions’ sought-after coordinators, who were driving the conversation when it comes to the head coaching search of multiple teams, can now conduct more thorough in-person interviews.
At this point, it seems as good an opportunity as ever to recalibrate our initial best guesses when it comes to which coaches will land where. I will start with my sense of the market at this very moment: I think that, as I write this, much of the world is waiting on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. I get the sense that Johnson will be very deliberate during the next few days. He remains Plan A in at least two different places and possibly three.
While the dynamics of the post have changed, we were correct in our assertion that this is truly the Johnson sweepstakes. Whether Johnson ends up being good, luring him will be a true test of ownership strength and financial commitment.
With that in mind, and with the full understanding that everything could change on a dime—remember that Johnson turned down overtures from both the Carolina Panthers in 2022 and the Washington Commanders in ’23 after feeling the sting of a championship game loss to the San Francisco 49ers—here’s our best guess as to how next week will play out.
An additional note: Kliff Kingsbury is not interviewing until the end of the season. Kingsbury saw his star rise through 2024, stemming from his work with Jayden Daniels, and especially into the playoffs. I would consider him a looming figure, though with so many of these teams eager to get moving, I wonder how many are willing to allow the cycle to pass them by to wait for the Commanders to finish their season. And, in that regard, would Kingsbury be interested in the remnants of this cycle, given that he vowed to become more selective his second time around?
Dallas Cowboys
Plan A: Generate as much attention as humanly possible and then hire Kellen Moore.
Plan B: Robert Saleh
Could the Cowboys get involved at the upper crust of this coaching search? Who knows. Jerry Jones has his modus operandi and, as we predicted when the Cowboys parted ways with Mike McCarthy, he was going to open up this coaching search. Moore provides Jones with familiarity—it bolsters his pipeline and Moore would not be surprised in any way by the rigors of the job. It also likely gives Jones the chance to add some familiar faces to the staff. All that said, I think Saleh has displayed an ability to bring an adult-in-the-room vibe to clearly chaotic situations. The defensive personnel would love him in Dallas.
New York Jets
Plan A: Aaron Glenn
Plan B: Matt Nagy/Arthur Smith
Glenn can be hired now. The Jets could enter the batter’s box with a coach who would not be viewed as simply a defensive coach. Glenn’s pedigree in Detroit only grew stronger after the Lions continued losing valuable personnel, and his ability to get the most out of the bottom tier of the roster had to impress the committee. Most of all, the Jets, as they do every hiring cycle, must start over after hiring a coach they hoped would fix the longstanding narrative of the place. Glenn comes from the most powerful recent turnaround in American sports. However, if Glenn is lured elsewhere, the Jets have a strong interview history with a few second-chance head coaches who are both ready for the big chair again.
Plan A: Ben Johnson
Plan B: Liam Coen
I think Shad Khan enjoyed putting the Urban Meyer trophy on the wall before it fell apart and the pursuit of Johnson is giving off similar vibes. The Lions’ offensive coordinator was able to help facilitate the ascension of Jared Goff from almost-there to borderline MVP candidate in Detroit, albeit with the help of an excellent offensive line and skill-position players. This hire is all about Lawrence, which is why I could see Coen of Tampa Bay settling in as a strong No. 2 candidate.
Of course, we need to remember that Jacksonville is—for now—intent on keeping Trent Baalke as GM. Through the interview process, I’ve heard confirmation that Khan has a lot of trust in Baalke.
Chicago Bears
Plan A: Ben Johnson
Plan B: Mike McCarthy/Kliff Kingsbury
The large-scale search conducted by Chicago puts them in a solid position to get the coach they want. There was a ton of steam on the McCarthy train at the end of last week after McCarthy’s exit from the Cowboys and immediate in-person interview with the Bears, with some industry experts wondering if McCarthy could end up winning the gig this week. McCarthy has an excellent track record with quarterbacks and would build an infrastructure to get Caleb Williams on the rails. However, now that Johnson is on the interview circuit, anything is possible. This would represent a major coup for the Bears against a division rival and add some flare to a skill-position group in Chicago that underwhelmed in 2024. While the Bears have an established front office, there are some Johnson connections there.
Las Vegas Raiders
Plan A: Ben Johnson
Plan B: Pete Carroll
The Raiders, like Jacksonville, appear to be enamored with Johnson and have a general manager candidate on deck with connections to Johnson who could tip the scales. As bleak as it looks in Las Vegas, some coaches are intrigued by the blank slate approach, especially if a coach is paired with a general manager who possesses a shared vision. Should Johnson head elsewhere, I am curious to see if the Raiders would lean toward another brand name, this time in Carroll, to instill some good vibes in the building and set up a more sustainable and definable culture.
New Orleans Saints
Plan A: Aaron Glenn
Plan B: Joe Brady/Mike McCarthy/Kliff Kingsbury
New Orleans is, strangely, in a great position. I get a kind of nothing-to-lose energy given that there are about as many quality candidates as there are openings. If the board falls as I have outlined it, they have three quality candidates, all of whom have direct ties to the organization. This is not the most desirable job as many in the industry have pointed out to me, but it’s a good job for those who are familiar with the area and are comfortable working in a familial atmosphere.
