Jump to a matchupChicago Bears (4–7) at Detroit Lions (10–1)Pittsburgh Steelers (8–3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4–7)Arizona Cardinals (6–5) at Minnesota Vikings (9–2)Philadelphia Eagles (9–2) at Baltimore Ravens (8–4)San Francisco 49ers (5–6) at Buffalo Bills (9–2)
There was a time when most football fans disliked seeing the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. The Lions were often bad and the annual Thursday game usually turned into a stinker.
But maybe the first-place Lions will now start a new tradition of punishing teams on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears are tasked with slowing the mighty Lions in the first of three games on Thursday. Many are expecting the Lions to cruise in this one, but the Bears kept it close against the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers the past two weeks.
As for the Week 13 Sunday slate, no game is bigger than the showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens featuring the two best running backs in the league. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry might combine for over 400 rushing yards with the way they’ve been running the football this season.
The Ravens are going to need to find a way to beat the surging Eagles to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. But the Steelers will have their hands full against the high-scoring offense of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are coming off a bye week.
These are just three of our five best games of Week 13. We’ll also keep tabs on the Arizona Cardinals facing the Minnesota Vikings, and the San Francisco 49ers battling the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
THURSDAYChicago Bears (4–7) at Detroit Lions (10–1)
When/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Lions -10.5 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: QB Caleb Williams vs. Lions S Brian Branch. Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season because he holds the ball too long and tends to force throws. That could get him in trouble against the versatile Branch, who has four interceptions this season. But Williams (11 touchdowns, five interceptions) has played with composure in recent weeks after the team fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replaced him with Thomas Brown earlier this month. —
Key stat: How does Caleb Williams handle the blitz? Detroit loves to blitz more than most, with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn bringing at least five rushers on 32.9% of snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the league. It’s going to be man coverage behind the blitzes as well, giving Williams a blueprint … if he can execute it. —
Start ’em/sit ’em: Williams looked great last week, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns and 26.9 fantasy points. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he must face the Lions defense next. Over the past four weeks, Detroit has held Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson all under 13 points. —
Best bet: Bears +10.5. No team in the NFL is in more of a “sell high” spot than the Lions. They’re the best team in the league, but laying double-digit points on a short week against a division rival that has been trending in the right direction is a tough pill to swallow. The Bears’ secondary has been elite and their offense has improved in their two games since firing Waldron and promoting Brown. I’ll try to be brave by betting against the unstoppable Lions. —
SI’s pick:The Bears like to counter 12 personnel defenses with nickel looks frequently, according to NextGenStats, which will be interesting when facing the league’s greatest two-headed rushing monster possibly of all time (don’t laugh! They’re the only 10-plus TD tandem in two consecutive years ever!). I expect the Lions to do some pummeling on Thanksgiving but I hope I’m wrong for the sake of having a good game. —
SUNDAYPittsburgh Steelers (8–3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4–7)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bengals -3 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Steelers’ secondary. Pittsburgh has one of the better defenses in the league, but the secondary has struggled at times. The defensive backs played well against the explosive Ravens in Week 11, but dealing with Chase presents a different set of problems. Chase has a league-high 1,056 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. The star receiver has 18 catches for 339 yards and five touchdowns in his past two games combined against the Los Angeles Chargers and Ravens. —
Key stat: The Steelers have a reputation of being great defensively, but they have issues. Pittsburgh is allowing 11.3 yards per completion, ranking 22nd. Conversely, Cincinnati averages a league-leading 262.7 passing yards per game. —
Start ’em/sit ’em: Najee Harris has seen his numbers decline since the return of Jaylen Warren, as he’s failed to score more than 13.3 points in each of his past three consecutive games. He’s a high risk-high reward flex starter against the Bengals, who have allowed just one back to beat them for more than 14.1 points since Week 7, including Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. —
Best bet: Steelers +3. The Steelers prove week after week and year after year that metrics and analytics don’t matter when they take the field. It may be tempting to lay the field goal on the Bengals, but Mike Tomlin brings his guys to play every week, and if their elite defense can slow Joe Burrow, they’re going to be in this game until the end. I’m not going to bet against them for losing in a snowstorm last week. —
SI’s pick:The Bengals comeback starts here. While Pittsburgh has a better receiving corps than the Chargers, which gave the Bengals some fits late in their last loss, Russell Wilson is not on Justin Herbert’s level. I think this is where Burrow rises to the top like he did during the Super Bowl run and leaves a string of white-hot games in his wake. —
