Tottenham are set for a huge summer both on and off the pitch after they cruelly missed out on a Champions League qualification berth by the slimmest of margins after Chelsea secured an unlikely triumph in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich, costing them not only a place at Europe’s top table, but also manager Harry Redknapp his job. This has left several of the clubs star players reportedly angling for moves away from the club, with Luka Modric prime among them, but are the club better off getting rid of the Croatian playmaker this summer?
Tottenham’s form dropped off terribly towards the end of last season. They were overhauled by bitter rivals Arsenal despite holding a 12-point lead over them at one point and threw away third place in the most unbelievable fashion possible. Redknapp’s ‘you guys have never had it so good’ routine, completely ignoring that the club were equally as good with fewer resources under Martin Jol, began to grate and a change was needed at the club. For a manager that’s somewhat famous for his man-management skills, his lack of squad rotation played a huge part in knackering out key players like Modric at a crucial time of the season.
Now with only Europa League football to look forward to, after being made to stay last season, it’s entirely understandable that Modric is beginning to look elsewhere. He’s 26 years old now and is beginning to reach the peak of his career, he performed very well at Euro 2012 for Croatia and is firmly in the shop window.
After rejecting the overtures of Chelsea last summer, with a saga that never looked like ending, Chairman Daniel Levy made his point that the club were no longer a selling club. It seemed more of an act of contrition than anything else, as Levy stubbornly refused to sell no matter what the price, as he tried to put the move that saw Dimitar Berbatov switch to Manchester United on deadline day for £30.75m back in 2008 to bed once and for all.
Chelsea offered as much as £40m for the midfielder, which is quite simply an eye-watering figure when you put it into the context that Modric has only ever played one season of Champions League football before in his entire career. Redknapp sounded keen last summer to let him go for something approaching that figure, reasonably arguing that it would allow him to bring in “four players and have a better team.”
Evaluating Modric is a tricky one. From a Tottenham perspective, considering they paid £16.5m for him the first place when he was far from the finished article, a figure of around £30m and above seems entirely fair, especially when you apply the context of how important he is to this current Spurs side. He dictates the tempo of their play, if he plays well, then so do the rest of the team. Replacing him is an extremely difficult task, as there simply aren’t that many players like him about, hence the strong interest from Chelsea last summer.
It reminds me of the deal that saw Liverpool fork out the best part of £20m for Stewart Downing last summer. The Merseyside club hugely overpaid because Aston Villa themselves had overpaid when they bought him for £12m from Middlesbrough back in 2009. There’s no doubt that Downing improved while at Villa, just as there isn’t that Modric has at Tottenham, but this knock-on effect means his selling price is always somewhat higher than it should be.
Modric isn’t really a world-class player. He’s caught in that bracket just below. He’s never going to be as good as the likes of Xavi, Iniesta or Ozil, and from the buyers point of view, if you’re paying between £30-40m for him, you’d want a player that is irrefutably world-class and Modric isn’t that yet and probably never will be. That’s not to say that he isn’t a very, very good player, of course he is, but let’s not get carried away now just because he plies his trade in a more immediately visible league. Tottenham are unlikely to get the £40m offer they turned down last year this summer.
Real Madrid have been bandied about as a potential future destination, with Jose Mourinho known to be a big admirer and it would also suit Tottenham in the sense that they are not strengthening a direct rival, although it remains to be seen quite where he would fit in at the Spanish champions and whose place in their starting line-up he would take.
Redknapp admitted that the club may struggle to keep hold of Modric again this summer back in late April saying: “Last summer it was vital that we kept hold of Luka. I would be lying if I said I was sure that he would stay (this summer). You would like to think Luka would still be here, but you never know.”
Arsenal are caught in a similar situation at the moment over the future of Robin van Persie. Much like Tottenham with Modric, Arsene Wenger’s side would love to keep Van Persie, he would make any side better and his departure would weaken their starting eleven, but if the player is set on the exit door, more often than not he will find it.
Here is the crux of the issue – Modric looks likely to leave, so is it not better that any move is done on Tottenham’s terms rather than the player’s? If he were to hand in a transfer request, that immediately puts the club on the back foot and reduces his price and their bargaining position. Do they really want another pre-season disrupted by repeated Modric rumours again?
Sticking your head in the sand and pretending that everything will be alright and that Modric will see the light and want to extend his stay at White Hart Lane is unrealistic. He may have stayed one more year had the club achieved Champions League football for next season, but not now. There’s only a select few clubs that can actually afford Modric, and with the player clearly angling for a move away, hence all of the Croatian team-mates past and present saying as much on his behalf, then it’s best if Tottenham pick exactly who they want to sell to rather than having any move foisted upon them.
I argued last season that selling Modric, and the potential windfall they’d get from £40m, may be a move that benefited both parties and that Tottenham may be able to compete with richer clubs for a transfer window or two for top talent. With his price now reduced and Modric’s resolve to move only strengthened, it’s not a matter of ‘if’ anymore rather than ‘when’. Levy is an exceptional businessman, and he’ll be fully aware of what the smart and sensible thing to do is here. The selling to improve the squad argument has gone out of the window now, but the question remains the same, and for me, the answer is still yes.
You can follow me on Twitter @JamesMcManus1
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