Week 9 will mark the final week of the first half of the 2024 NFL regular season. If you don't already know, I'm on a journey of not only betting a side or total in all 272 games, but I'm also betting 10 player props each week. That's 452 total bets I'm going to make this season with the goal of finishing in the green.
You can check out my best side and total bets in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets". In this article, I'm going to rank my top 10 player props I'll be wagering on.
We've unfortunately had back-to-back losing weeks with my player props, so it's time to get back on track.
Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 38-41-1 (-2.20 units)NFL Best Player Props for Week 910) Dalton Schultz OVER 4.5 Receptions (+126)
The Texans are now down another receiver with Stefon Diggs out for the year with a torn ACL. That leads me to believe C.J. Stroud will be forced to lean on his tight end, Dalton Shultz, even more than usual. Shultz is already tied for the most targets amongst healthy pass-catchers on the Texans this season with 38. If those targets keep coming, there's a great chance he will haul in five receptions on Thursday night.
9) Nick Chubb OVER 52.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Nick Chubb has seen his workload increase through his first two games since returning to injury, playing 36% of snaps in his first start and then 59% of snaps last week. That points to a further increased workload in Week 9 as he starts to feel more comfortable playing at game speed.
Don't be surprised if we see some regression from the Chargers defense in the coming weeks. They've benefited from playing against some of the worst offenses the league has to offer this season including the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, and a Saints team with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
I'm going to bet on Chubb having a breakout game this Sunday.
8) Matthew Stafford OVER 241.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Matthew Stafford has already been averaging 238.7 passing yards per game this season without having his top two receivers, Cooper Kupper and Puka Nacua, in their lineup. Now that those two are back on the field, the sky is the limit for the Rams quarterback.
Now, they get to face a Seahawks defense that has seen some heavy regression since their strong start to the season. They rank 25th in opponent dropback EPA and 32nd in opponent dropback success rate since Week 5.
7) Jalen Hurts UNDER 26.5 Pass Attempts (-101)
The Eagles stumbled out of the gates to start the season, but then they shifted their offensive scheme to being a run-heavy offense. They're now on a three game win streak while running the ball on 64.52% of plays over that stretch, the most in the NFL in the last three weeks by almost 11%.
As a result of their run-heavy scheme, Jalen Hurts has been averaging only 19.6 pass attempts per game over that stretch. Unless they find themselves losing to the Jaguars in the second half on Sunday, I expect the Eagles to continue to lean on the run game early and often.
6) Wan’Dale Robinson Touchdown +330
Wan’Dale Robinson is tied for third in the NFL in targets with 72, which is the same amount as CeeDee Lamb and more than Drake London. There is no way that a player who is tied for third in targets in the NFL should be listed at north of 3-1 to score a touchdown.
The Commanders are allowing an average of 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.
5) Bo Nix OVER 213.5 Pass Yard (-115)
Betting on whatever quarterback is playing against the Baltimore Ravens has been an auto-bet for me every week and it continues to cash for us.
The Ravens give up 291.4 passing yards per game while ranking 28th in opponent dropback EPA, and 26th in opponent success rate. They have also given up 39 pass plays of 20+ yards, which is the most in the NFL by five.
Bo Nix averaging 191.3 passing yards per game but a negative game script will likely force him to throw the ball more than usual. He's coming off a 284-yard performance against the Panthers.
4) Jonathan Taylor UNDER 71.5 Rush Yards (-115)
The key to victory for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football is to stop the run. If they can slow down Jonathan Taylor, the Colts' offense won't be as effective as they have been at times this season.
Thankfully, are built to do exactly that. They're first in opponent rush EPA, second in opponent rush success rate, and third in opponent yards per carry (3.9).
3) Kyler Murray UNDER 216.5 Pass Yards (-111)
Kyler Murray has a tough test ahead of him in Week 9 as he and the Cardinals offense will have to take on one of the best secondaries in the NFL. The Bears rank second in opponent dropback EPA, and sixth in opponent dropback success rate, and they give up only 199.0 passing yards per game.
Considering Murray is averaging 204.8 passing yards per game this season, I feel confident in saying he'll go UNDER 216.5 pass yards against this elite Chicago secondary.
2) Bijan Robinson OVER 73.5 Rush Yards (-111)
The Cowboys' defense has been abysmal against the run this season allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 154.6 total rushing yards per game. They're also dead last in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate.
Tyler Allgeier has been getting carries at times this season, but his usage has been blown out of proportion. Bijan Robinson has still played 68% of snaps in each of the past two weeks including a game against the Seahawks where he racked up 103 yards on 21 attempts.
1) Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 6.5 Receptions (-120)
I'm surprised this number is so high. considering the Lions have become a run-first team, ranking sixth in run play percentage at 50.12%.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had seven receptions just once in the last four games and three times all season. If you take out Week 2 against the Buccaneers where he saw 18 targets, he’s also only seeing 5.66 targets per game. The numbers simply aren't there to justify a receptions total of 6.5.
This bet will also be aided by the fact the Packers defense ranks ninth in opponent completion percentage (63.46%)
